基于前景理论对药品一致性经济风险的评价Economic risk evaluation on drug quality consistency based on prospect theory
黄哲,曹阳
HUANG Zhe,CAO Yang
摘要(Abstract)：
目的应用前景理论针对药品质量一致性经济风险进行评价研究。方法首先对药品一致性经济风险的评价问题进行描述,然后基于前景理论的思想,计算制药企业仿制药研发项目不同市场情景的综合价值,即定量化描述针对不同市场情景的市场需求、预期收益的决策者综合心理感知;计算不同市场情景的情景概率权重,即定量化描述针对不同情景出现的可能性的决策者心理感知;最后依据市场情景综合价值、情景的概率权重、研发药品预期的药品一致性评分以及项目的成本投入,计算仿制药项目的综合前景值。结果根据不同仿制药研发项目的经济风险综合前景值,可以从中选择最优的仿制药研发项目。结论本文作者提出的基于前景理论的药品一致性经济风险评价模型,能够对仿制药项目的药品质量一致性经济风险进行有效的评价,为制药企业的仿制药研发项目选择提供有效的方法。
Objective To propose a research model based on prospect theory for the economic risk evaluation on drug quality consistency. Methods First,we analyze the problems of economic risk evaluation on generic drug quality consistency. Then,based on prospect theory,we calculate the integrated values of generic drug project in different market situations,which are the quantitative description of the decision maker's expected returns and market demands. Furthermore, the weights of possible market situations are calculated,and it is the quantitative description of the decision maker's psychological perception in different market situations.Results and Conclusions According to the values,probability weight, the expected quality consistency grade of the generic drug and cost, the comprehensive prospect value of each project is calculated. The optimal generic drug project is selected based on the comprehensive prospect value. Finally,a case study is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed model.
关键词(KeyWords)：
仿制药;质量一致性;经济风险;前景理论
generic drug;quality consistency;economic risk;prospect theory
基金项目(Foundation): 辽宁省教育厅项目“基于大数据的新药研发风险应对策略生成方法研究”(201610163W01)
作者(Author):
黄哲,曹阳
HUANG Zhe,CAO Yang
DOI: 10.14066/j.cnki.cn21-1349/r.2017.07.012
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